Little Takes A Pass, Aubertine Hedges

June 2, 2009

Republican Sen. Betty Little, a top potential contender for the seat Rep. John McHugh will vacate to become secretary of the Army, does not plan to run, an aide in her Albany office confirmed.

"She is not interested," Little spokesman Dan MacEntee said.

That's an interesting turn of events, given how much Little pushed (unsuccessfully) for the GOP nod to run for the 20th CD seat left open by Kirsten Gillibrand's elevation by the governor to Hillary Clinton's US Senate seat. (Assemblyman Jim Tedisco got the nomination, but lost to Democratic newcomer, Scott Murphy).

On the other side of the aisle, Democratic Sen. Darrel Aubterine, who won a 2007 special election in the GOP-dominated 48th SD (the last political victory for then-Gov. Eliot Spitzer before he was felled by his prostitution scandal), isn't saying "yes" to a House bid, but isn't saying "no," either.

"The senator is committed to his work in the New York State Senate; there's a great deal of important work the senator is involved in this session," said Aubertine spokesman Drew Mangione, who cited Aubertine's committee chairmanships (he has both Agriculture and Energy, which he inherited after Sen. Kevin Parker's arrest), and work as head of the Upstate Democratic Caucus and Legislative Commission on Rural Resources.


"The Senator is committed to improving the economy of Central and Northern New York, creating jobs, protecting our farmers and defining New York’s energy future," Mangione added.

When I noted that's not exactly an answer to the "is he interested" question, Mangione replied:

"This news just got sprung on us; it's neither a 'no' nor a 'yes,' and it's not really a 'maybe,' either." 

Aubertine wouldn't have to give up his seat to run, but his departure (should he run and win) would be a significant blow to the Senate Democrats and their slim 32-30 hold on the majority.

Aubertine's win over Republican Assemblyman Will Barclay (who's also being mentioned as a potential candidate for McHugh's seat) was something of a personality-driven fluke. A conservative Democrat who is against gay marriage and well-versed in rural issues (he's a dairy farmer), Aubertine was a singular candidate. It would be hard to replace him.

Former Rep. Tom Reynolds, who used to represent the district adjacent to McHugh's and once headed the NRCC, told Politico the 23th CD presents "one of the best opportunities for Democrats to pursue now that McHugh out of the way."

Barack Obama carred the district in 2008, despite its GOP enrollment edge.

Sources are telling Politico's Jonathan Martin that McHugh's chief of staff, Robert Taub, is an early frontrunner for the GOP nod.

(Recall that there's no primary in a special election; the decision will be made by the 11 county chairs who have a stake in the district, although the governor could decide to simply hold off until the general election, which would save the state a lot of money).

Martin is also reporting that the idea of tapping McHugh came from Sean Sweeney, a veteran of New York politics and an aide to none other than White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who, as you'll recall, also played a key role in getting Rep. Steve Israel not to run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand next fall.

Other names coming up as potential contenders for McHugh's seat:

Former state Sen. Jim Wright, whose retirement opened up Aubertine's seat; Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who many think could have defeated Aubertine had she run against him in 2007; Sen. Dave Valesky; Assemblywoman Addy Russell, who took Aubertine's old seat; former Sen. Ray Meier (he doesn't live in the district, but, then again, neither did Assemblyman Jim Tedisco when he ran in the 20th, technically speaking); Franklin County DA Derek Champagne; Plattsburgh Mayor Donald Kasprzak and (an interesting wild card) Kay Stafford, wife of the late Sen. Ron Stafford who is now partners with former Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno.

Jerrt Skurnik put together this handy spreadsheet of state lawmakers in the 23rd. .

Also, Sen Chuck Schumer released a statement praising McHugh:

"Two words that characterize John McHugh are class and service, and in this new job he will once again be able to use both," the senator said. "I will work to ensure a swift and smooth confirmation for my good friend."